What is this!?

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I’m a statistician/economist/ broker/ analyst by trade, with a background in mathematics; but also a lover of football, and the draft in particular.

I’m aiming to bring statistical models, analysis, logic, and basic common sense to the mock draft process.

Listen, here’s a freakin secret – here’s how traditional mock draft processes work. Coverage can be broken down into 4 groups:

1: Media outlets, working for the league, campaigning for big $$$ players – guy’s the league want to see in advertising campaigns

2: Media outlets, working for the league, trying to create a buzz for the draft broadcast

3: Amateurs, trying to grab web hits and advertising $$$ with various outlandish picks

4: Honest guys, genuinely trying to predict the thing.

Football is a game of numbers, statistics, and finance, so the draft should fit traditional analytic  models quite well. Time to take it to these turkeys.

Really, it isn’t that hard ………..

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2 thoughts on “What is this!?

  1. Sean Callander

    you gave No Math, no logical, or constructive reasoning behind your argument on any of the picks. Gave simple answers based on opinion not fact.
    Clowney isn’t the best pick, only reason given because 4 or 5 men in their 30’s playing his position went to free agency, Ware, Allen, Tuck, and others all had injury issues. Then you look at Williams for the bills, when he played for the Texans, made a poor defense good, now same on the Bills. He has outplayed almost everyone in that draft to warrant the first over all pick, the only one who has outplayed him is Dumervill (4th round) and he was outplayed by Williams this year, so looking at a guy who can last 10 years might still go to Williams. He was a safe and good #1 pick at the time and now. Main reason for trade didnt fit into the new scheme and wanted big time money. Then you said- 10 sacks doesnt warrant high pick- forgot to mention, hurries, pressures, knock downs, game planning.- most of these guys in prime average 14 sacks a year. But Allen or Ware can change entire game plan of the offense, and single handed make a good QB become average or make bad decisions. Don’t need sacks to cause a pick, or a turnover- just pressure and that can happen on almost every play.
    Quarterbacks taken in the first round or even first overall have just as much chance at failing as succeeding. Look at even the so-called proven first round Veterans: Ryan- record last year?, and is he great or just a great offensive around him? Stafford- keeping the best receiver down, with his strong arm but inconsistency in pass efficiency. Bradford (a guy i loved in college, thought might be the next Manning- In college played very intelligent, had the intangibles to be great, but never really worked out- although this year will really say if he is a bust or not) has been average at best, some saying he is the reason the Rams are .500. Smith- a back up/starter/back up, traded, now all of a sudden he is good, but is he?
    Then you look at Qbs that some love some hate- Cutler- Favre Junior? Vick- Rivers- how many play offs, how many play off wins (at one time he was considered a top 5 QB).
    So saying a qb is the safe pick at #1 based off math, when the evidence shows no clear cut #1, has meant a play off appearance or superbowl win. Exception is Luck (but what has he done, play offs yes, has the game winning ability and come back yes. But can single handed lose a game for you as well. Will he or is he a great i think so, but needs a few more years to tell. Also could be another Rivers, great early, average later).
    Is an End worth a first round first pick the right choice, maybe. Talent wise Clowney is a safe pick, everything else he is not. But do you take a LT first when you can get players in this draft early second round that maybe just as good. Or QB, do you take a chance on a guy #1, when you can get a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round that is just as good.
    Look at another draft, Joe Thomas Best tackle (run), Clady Best tackle (pass). Thomas was top tackle taken, has paid off even though he is on a team that has let his amazing career disappear. Clady was the 3rd Tackle taken that year, and everyone questioned his work ethic, his upper body strength. Now no one questions it- and is the best of his draft class (i would take Clady over all other tackles personally,but Thomas would be a close second, and maybe if on another team might take him over clady) . His feet were as they said dancer feet, an ability that is the most difficult to teach in tackles, Thomas as well had leverage and body movement, foot placement that is hard to teach. But recently popular trend is to take tackles high and now only half work out. Still a safe pick. DT are also popular, and who has worked out there, i can think of three (not all first picks, but top 10) Ngata, Suh, Watt- then you have names and a season or 2 but no real production in Darius, Raji, and a couple others.
    Safe picks through out the years have been few and limited. Fitzgerald, Luck, Williams, Bailey, Thomas, Long (tackle), Willis, and of course I’m forgetting a couple or cant remember 5 to 10 years ago if they were ‘safe’ picks. But Fitz most likely safest pick of all time. Luck the so-called next Manning. Thomas and Long (until injury) were pro ready by sophomore year in college. Willis was only a system issue. Bailey considered the next Deion and was.
    Point is no pick is entirely safe all positions through popularity is going to skew the success/failure stats. Tackle, Guard safe picks
    DT, LB next safe picks. Ends, TE average. Corners, Wide out, Qb bottom of the barrel. RB almost certain to fail.
    I personally would never take a Wide out, Corner top 10- but then i would miss out on a calvin, Fitz, or Green. (still could get Colston, Marshall, Harvin). Or a corner- no Bailey, Peterson. But mid first round- Hadyen, Revis, etc. . .
    RB should be late first to 3rd round- Unless you have Peterson (at time injury was an issue, and i would of passed on him as well)
    Tackle, QB (although would have to be a sure fire wouldn’t reach, is right now the most important position), Top DL pick in top 10.
    LB- rarely but if a Willis, Miller was there yes.
    Guard- after top 10- unless Mangold- would of taken him in top 10, yes i know he is a Center, but best in 20 years.
    WR, Corner, mid first or later (WR only if a Fitz or green fell to 15th or so, then only 25 or up) FA is one of the best ways to acquire proven good WR or Corners.
    Conclussion:
    If i was Texans, either trade pick, due to Clowney doesn’t fit in scheme, Don’t need a left tackle, and Mack (position they need) shouldn’t be first overall pick, for a 1st, 2nd and 5th rounder- although i would still want my first round in top 15. Then you can take a qb with late first or your 2nd rounder. Or go against better judgement and take a QB, but only if i think they are it. To me there is no QB this year that is it. But trading pick would be my first choice, maybe my only choice.
    Jags should take Clowney or Mack
    Rams agree Tackle. Once again they dont need Clowney and have a good defense with out big names and work as a unit, dont mess that up by adding a possible cancer. but could see a trade from them as well, not far- maybe to pick 9 or 10 for a 3rd rounder, to go with it.
    This draft is very deep in many positions. But with a few Freaks- Mack, Clowney, and 2 or 3 WR.
    Biggest bust this year Corners. Most underrated position this year Guard.

    Reply

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