Houston, First Pick – and the math behind it

1: Houston    Blake Bortles

Don’t listen to these turkey’s telling you a pass rusher is a premium pick. Teams grab great pass rushers from almost everywhere – free agency, and mid round in the draft. Look at Seattle for Christ sake.

Add up the number of Superbowls Reggie White, Bruce Smith, Demarcus Ware, Jared Allen have got. It’s one. The ability to hit a QB 10 freaking times a season, is hugely overrated statistically. 

The first round for teams is a safe pick first of all. Second, it’s a value pick. That’s the maths. Defensive end is not a safe pick (look at all the pass rushing flops) and it’s not a value pick at number 1.

All known logic and numbers tell you Houston will take a Quarterback. And the Quarterback I’m hearing they like, on the street, is Blake Bortles. 

Clowney is one of these HOF talent guys. Which adds in a statistical variable. But it’s probably 80% likely Houston will take a QB

 

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One thought on “Houston, First Pick – and the math behind it

  1. jwilson482

    Big plays such as sacks can often change the game. If you weight each type of play according to its average impact on a game you’ll probably find that sacks are fairly important. That being said I completely agree with you on DEs being hit or miss and sometimes it not being as easily predictable as talent at other positions. I also must say that I appreciate your analysis and the fact that you actually put thought into it unlike most people who make comments. Here is my take on this situation.

    If you do not believe that any of the QBs are going to be safe, value, or immediate impact players you should take the best talent available. Clowney may well be that best talent, and that talent is more likely to make an immediate impact on an already talented pass rushing team. Lets say he lines up outside of JJ Watt. This would free him up to face single blocks despite his talent which could lead to a significant sack total increase for the team. A good pass rusher also affects all of the other pass rushers on the line. This allows for setting the other team back in down and distance directly affecting their chance to score.

    I think that when you add up the possible gains from drafting an obviously talented DE vs a mildly talented QB (albeit the best in this draft) the DE wins that battle. This is because QBs are just as notoriously unreliable as draft picks.

    Reply

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