St Louis, Second Pick – and the math behind it

2:  St Louis     Jake Mathews

The Turkey’s on NFL.com, and such sites, will tell you “they have to take Clowney!”

Read my first post again. NFL first round is about taking (what you consider) as a safe pick, a value pick, and a 3rd variable being a position of need.

I disagree Clowney is a safe pick – because no pass rusher is a safe pick. Taking a pass rusher at 2 is not a value pick. And it’s not a position of need.  So it’s very unlikely St. Louis take Clowney, statistically.

The math is all pointing towards offensive tackle. And don’t listen to these freaking turkey’s telling you Greg Robinson will be the guy. He fails the “safety” test. Sure, he’s safe at right tackle. But he’s not as safe at left tackle as Jake Mathews.

Mathews is the safe, high value number 2 pick. 

 

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Houston, First Pick – and the math behind it

1: Houston    Blake Bortles

Don’t listen to these turkey’s telling you a pass rusher is a premium pick. Teams grab great pass rushers from almost everywhere – free agency, and mid round in the draft. Look at Seattle for Christ sake.

Add up the number of Superbowls Reggie White, Bruce Smith, Demarcus Ware, Jared Allen have got. It’s one. The ability to hit a QB 10 freaking times a season, is hugely overrated statistically. 

The first round for teams is a safe pick first of all. Second, it’s a value pick. That’s the maths. Defensive end is not a safe pick (look at all the pass rushing flops) and it’s not a value pick at number 1.

All known logic and numbers tell you Houston will take a Quarterback. And the Quarterback I’m hearing they like, on the street, is Blake Bortles. 

Clowney is one of these HOF talent guys. Which adds in a statistical variable. But it’s probably 80% likely Houston will take a QB

 

What is this!?

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I’m a statistician/economist/ broker/ analyst by trade, with a background in mathematics; but also a lover of football, and the draft in particular.

I’m aiming to bring statistical models, analysis, logic, and basic common sense to the mock draft process.

Listen, here’s a freakin secret – here’s how traditional mock draft processes work. Coverage can be broken down into 4 groups:

1: Media outlets, working for the league, campaigning for big $$$ players – guy’s the league want to see in advertising campaigns

2: Media outlets, working for the league, trying to create a buzz for the draft broadcast

3: Amateurs, trying to grab web hits and advertising $$$ with various outlandish picks

4: Honest guys, genuinely trying to predict the thing.

Football is a game of numbers, statistics, and finance, so the draft should fit traditional analytic  models quite well. Time to take it to these turkeys.

Really, it isn’t that hard ………..